I’m a political scientist who worked at the Center for Naval Analyses (1969-99) with a group that supported and critiqued ONI and OPNAV planners and analyzed the Soviet military press. I directed the group 1974-89. I retired as a Captain in the Naval Reserve after service in Naval Intelligence. This blog aims to contribute to… Read more

Explanatory Note: CNA’s Soviet navy studies program in the 1970s and 80s analyzed the traditional bodies of evidence, classified and unclassified, including Soviet naval operations, exercises, building programs, etc. But its main focus was on analyzing open source Soviet military writings. I was a team member and the program’s director from 1973 to 1982. The… Read more

This posting is temporarily unavailable. As originally written, I believe its assessments and recommendations were broadly correct. I am revising it in the hope of sharpening its arguments and offering critiques of recent cogent commentary on the subject, for example Gabriel Collins, “A Maritime Oil Blockade Against China—Tactically Tempting but Strategically Flawed,” Naval War College Review, Vol… Read more